Tuesday, May 26, 2015

New Home Sales: April 2015

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing sales jumped a notable 6.8% from March rising 26.1% above the level seen in April 2014 but still remaining near an historically low level with 517K SAAR units.

The monthly supply declined to 4.8 months while the median selling price increased 8.31% and the average selling price increased 5.04% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: March 2015

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in March, nationally, home prices increased 0.34% from February rising 5.16% above the level seen in March 2014.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2015

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from February with prices rising 0.80% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.80% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.92% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 4.14% above the level seen in March 2014 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.75% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.04% over the same period.

On a peak basis, all three indices still show significant peak declines slumping 8.99% for the National index, -16.02% for the Composite-10 city index and -15.17% for the Composite-20 city index on a peak comparison basis.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 20 2015

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 4 basis points to 3.96% (average of all fixed rate loans... 30 year conforming loan rate reached 4.04% over the same period) since last week while the purchase application volume decreased 4% and the refinance application volume increased 0.3% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

New Residential Construction Report: April 2015

Yesterday’s New Residential Construction Report showed notably improving results with total permit activity increasing 10.1% since March while total starts increased a whopping 20.2% over the same period.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 3.7% from March to 666K single family units (SAAR), and rose 7.1% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: May 2015

Recently, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity declined in May with the composite HMI index falling to 54 while the "buyer traffic" index declined to a level of 39 from 40 in the prior month.

Overall, conditions for new home construction appear to have softened some recently and still remain below the peak assessments see prior to the Great Recession.