Sunday, August 12, 2007

I’m Back!


First, many thanks to all the wonderful readers that wished me a happy vacation… It was really nice to come home to so many great emails!

Well, Bermuda was really amazing. I would definitely recommend it to anyone looking for a fun, beautiful, quiet and relaxing island destination.

It has stunning beaches and coves (pink sands on the south beaches!), exceedingly nice people, loads of fish to snorkel at and plenty of great points of interest and activities.

We even rented a small Boston Whaler and spent half a day shooting to-and-fro across the Great and Little Sounds and to the back side of the island around Spanish Point.

We were literally whizzing in-between the island ferries and alongside cruise ships! They are VERY laid back on that island to say the least.

Also, with Jet Blue now flying there it’s MUCH cheaper to get to than it had been in the past… Just $200 round trip from Boston (and likely other cities as well).

Better yet, it’s such a short flight… only 2 hours from many cities on the east coast and the Bermuda International Airport is extremely easy to get in and out of. It’s so quick and easy that your arrival and departure days almost become full days on the island.

On the way home I found myself plotting out just how and when to get back there again in the near future.

As for the housing and economic events that have transpired since I left all I can say is WOW!

Is there any doubt now that Great Decline is in full swing?

Is there any doubt that Bernanke and the Fed, Paulson and Lazear, and all the Bullish pundits, either purposefully or not, underestimated the depth and breadth of the housing collapse and the spillover effects it’s having on the general economy?

It seems clear to me that, at this point, Bernanke, not Yun, is the new Lereah and that no amount optimistic speak of the health of the overall economy, false notions of “containment” or even massive injections of liquidity is going to spin the tide against this colossal bust.

The mortgage market is imploding, homes sales are continuing to slide, inventory is rising and prices are falling.

Most American consumers are tightening their “discretionary” belts and many are losing their homes to foreclosure.

The only question now is how long will it take for this ugly deterioration to completely unfold and lead to recession and a reversion to the mean for home prices?

As we can see from last week, the collapse is quickly becoming one of the biggest stories of our time… far larger, I think, than all the bubble hype that ginned up the mania to begin with.

We are still at the start of this immense process and as it becomes clearer and more obvious to the average American that the glory days of the run-up are long gone, I expect to see the real correction kick in.